Sep 29, 2013

Cory Diary : Potatoes

A News reported yesterday that a lady after biting her fried potatoes, her lips become numb and feel awful. She tear up the potatoes and surprise is greenish inside.

A search in the internet finding !

" Potatoes (like tomatoes) contain poison in the stems and leaves – and even in the potato itself if left to turn green (the green is due to a high concentration of the glycoalkaloid poison). Potato poisoning is rare, but it does happen from time to time. Death normally comes after a period of weakness and confusion, followed by a coma."

Cory

29th Sept'13

Sep 27, 2013

Cory Diary : Are we beating Inflation Rate ?


In Taiwan,

1.07% Inflation Rate rate this year
1.355% Saving Fixed Deposit ( 1 Year )

Interesting time for Taiwan saving accounts.

Cory
27th Sept'13


Sep 25, 2013

Cory Diary : Interesting Information this week

This week encounter two sites which i find quite informative.

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

Though this events happen before the theory and explanations by Ray, nevertheless is good to know he puts the puzzle together. I am not convince he thinks of it out of the blue but based on past events and current situation to explain his logic.


Cory
25th Sept'13


Sep 22, 2013

Cory Diary : Second Guessing Fed

People have short memory. Never fight the Fed. I would add Never second guess them. Fed needs to show the world or Americans that they are worth their salary and positions. What's the point if any Tom, Dick and Harry can predict their moves ? They will lose FACE even if they are right !

Interest rates will be remain low if Unemployment exceeds 6.5%, and the Inflation Outlook no higher than 2.5%. Let's see who "Blink" first. We are at inflection point.


Cory
22nd Sept'13

Sep 21, 2013

Cory Diary : Mood Swing

Eight things i did to overcome my emotions so far ...

1. Blogging on investment thoughts
This is quite fun if you blog just for your own. Don't do it to please others.

2. Have different varieties of investment in companies, sectors, instruments
Money swing to here and there. This will reduce your risk.

3. Measure all of them as a total value
This will damper the fluctuations.

4. Continue to work
Gives a lot of emotional strength while improving your net worth quicker

5. Re-balancing my portfolio
This allow you to take profit and more investment on lower PE stocks

6. Put more emphasis on FA
This let me overcome irrationality of the market

7. Sufficient Dividend Yields instead of just growths
One of key expectations that my investment has to deliver. Show me the MONEY !

8. Engage with Market Participants
Need to get a feel of the ground. A place to learn wider diversity of views.
Gives you more knowledge to decipher and adjust. Market is a sentiment animal.
And don't fight the Fed.


Cory
21st Sept'13


Sep 20, 2013

Cory Diary : Surge and Purge

Yesterday Surge is definitely one of those times (Thanks to Mr. Ben). His words move the World Markets again. There was once a study that said the market major moves go by Surge and Purge paces.

It Surges about a half to a dozen times a year iirc. Just capturing those well we will be on our way to financial freedom. Avoiding all the Purges will definitely bring us to guru status. To less mobile investor, these are definitely not easy and likely impossible.

I saw a Taiwanese Talk Show yesterday on Fundamental Analysis aka FA.
Few things to focus over 5 years. ROE and FCF. For a more practical approach I would add Dividend Yield as another. I would like to add Market Timing on major market moves ... kungfu not perfect yet.

Cory
20th Sept 2013

Sep 17, 2013

Cory Diary : CPFIS-OA investors


Read a page from CPF site today. Here's my notes.

83% of CPFIS-OA investors should have leave their money with CPF in 2011 as they make less than 2.5% or lose money. If we think single year cannot be counted, it get worst in 2012 with 84% despite the market did pick-up for the year.

Losses constituted slightly more than half for both years .... so what is going on ?

Few possibilities

1. Low PE/SME stocks that maybe out of reach of CPFIS-OA investors
2. "Loud" counters that is widely known but business wise may not be as good
3. Dividends maybe excluded
4. ...

Whichever the case, we need the authority to manage the scheme properly or responsibly. I would suggest basic investment examination for people who want to withdraw their fund for gold or equity investments.


Cory
17th Sept'13

Sep 16, 2013

Cory Diary : BB Codes


For people who likes to play with color
Example

[color=#7FFF00] test [/color]

[color=Chartreuse] test [/color]


You can find many color codes on the tab bar listed in this blog.


Cory

16th Sept 2013

Sep 12, 2013

Cory Diary : USD Currency Exposure





Roughly over 20% depreciation for the past 10 years. If compounded likely be around -2.5% annually.

The recent tapering talk may pull up the dollar a little. However USD has been on a long and gradual slippery slope against SGD even in good times as the weakening happens even before 2008 financial crisis.

I will need to be aware the additional returns needed to make-up the differences !


Cory
12th Sept'13

Sep 10, 2013

Cory Diary : Simple Parameters of a Reit


Simple Parameters of a Reit

With tapering, i am kind of confuse how large an impact it is. Here's a simple draft note i am working on.

$1M Fund on a 1M Shares priced at par.
Leverage : 40% to $1.4M total funding
Earning Yield : 10% of $1.4M = $140,000

Cost of Loan : 3% implied = $12,000
Earning less Loan Cost = $128,000
Dividend Yield @95% = $115,200 implied 11.52%

What-if Cost of Loan 5% ?
Cost of Loan : 5% implied = $20,000
Earning less Loan Cost = $120,000
Dividend Yield @95% = $114,000 implied 11.4%

For 2% loan cost increase, a lower Yield of 11.4% will be $0.9896. Even with no increase in rent, did Market over-react to the rate hike ?

What-if we start with 5% Earning Yield and 3% Loan cost ?
Earning Yield : 5% of $1.4M = $70,000
Cost of Loan : 3% implied = $12,000
Earning less Loan Cost = $58,000
Dividend Yield @95% = $55,100 implied 5.51%

What-if we start with 5% Earning Yield and 5% Loan cost ?
Earning Yield : 5% of $1.4M = $70,000
Cost of Loan : 5% implied = $20,000
Earning less Loan Cost = $50,000
Dividend Yield @95% = $47,500 implied 4.75%

Conclusion

Put it plainly, an investor will suffer a greater percentage loss for a lower yield counter.

Dividends
Yields
Result
1
 $       10,000
11.52%
2
 $         9,896
11.40%
-1.0%
from item 1
Dividends
Yields
Result
3
 $         4,783
5.51%
4
 $         4,123
4.75%
-13.8%
from item 3

This is not saying having a Strong Sponsor, Book Value, Sector, Growth, Management and Gearing are not important.


Cory
10th Sept'13

Sep 7, 2013

Cory Diary : SIA Engineering

I am spending time to take notes this weekend due to recent "accidental venture" .... sigh ...( Stress )

So here i am today on my own on the need to conduct deeper investigation. Do take it with a pinch of salt on all the data shown here as i will likely be bias and from an untrained financial background.

This company has strong barrier, stable business, growing and dividends with negligible debt.

"The cash balance of the Group as at 30 June 2013 was $628.7 million, an increase of $105.8 million or 20.2% compared to 31 March 2013."

Low earning yield due to reasonable anticipated growth.
Staff Costs from $123.4 M to $128.7 M = $5.3 M or 4.3% increase

1. Last traded stock price = $4.66
2. The last two half years dividends total = 0.15 + 0.07 = $0.22
3. Last report quarter earning per share = $0.0616
4. Profit Margin above 20% - Historical
5. EPS around 6% - Historial
6. Annualized growth around 6% - Historical

Annualized returns of Dividend Yield based on item 2 = 0.22/4.66 = 4.72%
Annualized returns of Earning Yield based on last quarter earning  = 5.28%

If we consider capital growth element plus dividends, this is a 10% stock with a great business.

There seems to be a nice support around $4.64 from current dip. The next lower will be around $4.48 in my personal opinion. Normally i will get some batches first which account for my high trade frequency, and then go deeper .... sigh ha ha

Take note is just a blog diary. Thanks for reading.


Cory
7th Sept'13 (Vested)