Aug 19, 2017

Cory Diary : Dividends Aug'17

As most dividends announced coming to an end this month, I have tabled my dividends taken YTD.
This has hit $30,828. Half from Reits. I did not compute how much I will get by year end but I would think $40 K will be a good number.



Since I last blogged about some of my stocks in various articles, CMT has a nice run up. Aim Reits has some correction. Singtel after ex-div has reduced some. Design Studio and Neratel I am a little fortunate. Interestingly Valuemax and AGT did not move up despite good results. Well, this is stock market. The price is the summation of the participants which I have little control of. Despite so, YTD dividends are less than half of my total earning this year from equity. I would expect the dividend proportion to move up slowly by year end.




Cumulative dividends gained hits $214,682. Surely this need capital to do but one should not forget about the learning and stock selection knowledge process to build it up over the years from small. Today, past dividends and equity gains constitute roughly 40% of my capital. It would not have been possible without, considering we have much of our fund locked up in Property, Car, Emergency fund and Insurance.

For people who follow the market closely, a little comfort will be DBS and some others impacting stocks of  Index has grown a little tired. Therefore my performance has narrowed further against STI Index despite increasing rates. Will this be a good time to do another re-balance or should I wait further for the index to slide further ?


Cory
20170819






Aug 12, 2017

Cory Diary : North Korea Crisis on Stock Market Volatility 2017

During April this year I wrote about non-financial crisis events have minor or short term impact to stock market. To refresh memory here's the ( link.)  Chances are this North Korea War on Words will come to past. While there maybe a small chance on Nuclear Black Swan Event, this is rather hard to predict as we are dealing with two egoistic adult humans.

What I did ? I have to stay invested as dividend investor but did some re-balance on my portfolio. Raised some more cash for opportunity. YTD my dividends have hit $30K. So getting the last $10K may not be impossible task with reduced exposure.

Another reason is after hitting 10% gains this year, I like to gain some buffer to reduce the trough in my cyclic returns across the years even though they are trending up. Hopefully this will give me better results. Here's the link on my annualized returns wrote in Jun'17 ( Link ).Time will tell.


Cory
20170812



Aug 6, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q3 2017 July Update

July month just pasted. We have 5 more months to go. As everyone know, STI has been on winning streak this year. People who are wholly invested in banks expected to record significant gains. How I do so far without investing in them this year ?

Below table is the Interim Q3'17 July result. A further improvement from Final Q2 on link here.

My investment life returns moved up to 7.2%. I thought this is nice despite laden with PS and Bonds.





STI YTD further it' gain to 15.5% so despite Cory returns of 12% YTD, I am still in catch-up mode ..... but the picture is a lot better than start of year with an expanded portfolio from past years. This is also mitigated by Core holding STI ETF which I would not sell easily.

Results were mixed across the portfolio else I would have leveled against STI. Fortunately a number of speculative contra trading helps to improve. Dividends wise, moved up to about 30K for this 7 months. So you can do a rough estimate on my portfolio and gains . :)


Reits

Generally they did well. I have not much complains. Allocations still need some fine-tuning probably. Yield range between 5%-8%.

Neratel
Neratel is a new position. However the result down due to tax. This is a little unfortunate else I would maintain my recent found gains. I still has some confidence in them but we need to watch closely.

Design Studio
The quarter result doesn't look good. Fortunately I locked in some gains (link) which kind of act as a good buffer for the down side. The half year looks so so, again stay nimble.

Singtel
Manage to hold off ok after Ex-dividends. I look forward to reduce debts or better revenue improvement instead of special dividends. So the withholding of the cash from netlink trust ipo for business needs I think is a good move. 


Cory
20170806

Jul 29, 2017

Cory Diary : Sheng Siong 2Q'2017

Is another profitable period for Sheng Siong. Last time when I blogged about this Supermarket ( link ) on 23rd Feb'17, price was $ 0.955. It moved up to $1.005 before recent Amazon news pull down the stock before recovering at $0.96. There was a div in May'17 of $0.0185. So theoretically speaking, without this news it would have hit more that $1.005 after report.



If Amazon market segment target is Sheng Siong ones, I think it will be a mistake. So I am not so worried about it.  The impact will probably be more on the branding against existing online retailers and certain extend on Super Market like Cold Storage. So i dip for a little more on low.


Dividends

"Declared interim dividend of 1.55 cent per share". Last August it was 1.9 cent. Therefore a reduction. I did note this statement. "After paying the final dividend for FY 2016 in 2Q2017, cash and cash equivalents increased by $6.2m to $69.6m as at 30 June 2017."


Growth

My take is the next few quarters will be more retail space for growth so we will see stronger rev. There maybe a dip due to woodland after closure but if there is, will likely be temporary. From Sheng Siong results presentation, Woodlands closure is now by Oct which means next report 3Q'17 may not have large impact from it.


Risk 
The next level of risk is the China investment. US$6 Million investment. 


DYODD.
Cory
20170729

Jul 26, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170726

STI has been almighty this year. And i start reviewing my portfolio for more stringent safety.
The changes are on my personal trades and those that I can remember offhand. Please DYODD.



HYFLUX 6% PCS

With the run-up this year on this Pref shares and the profit guidance just announced, I decided to clear my little holding I have for 10% returns this year. Net for this counter is slightly negative. The catalyst possibly the sale of Singapore Plant but I decided not to wait.


NetLink NBN Tr

I have expanded my holding in this counter. My take is that annualized yield is reasonable and good cash flow (FCF) should be good for coming quarters. The ducts have long service life and cables probably good for long term. Therefore the depreciation of asset is more for accounting and no impact to FCF. The risk of technology is there but I think is low. Monopoly in retail market is a good plus and the recurring income is nice. Returns of more than 5.x% is good enough.




Cory
20170726



Jul 21, 2017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 2Q17 ( CMT )

Here's the headline today




"CMT 2Q 2017 net property income up 1.2% year-on-year Achieves higher distribution per unit despite closure of Funan for redevelopment"

DPU within expectation. The threat of online shopping on CMT has been mute which has many strategic asset locations to benefit from. Before the result announced, share price has climbed up to $2.00. And Investor will have another quarterly distribution. At current price, is about 5.5% stable yield which is way better than fixed deposits and ofcourse with different risk level. But frankly, if we cannot accept (except) CMT risk, there is not many stocks we can invest in.

The MOS and Catalyst will be Funan. And again management statement on continuing to focus on sustaining DPU is the right one that I agree with because there is good chance it can go lower in 2018/2019 considering the macro environment on malls and the larger leases renewal before Funan is ready. The question is if it does, how much ? Do we buy more in stages (cheaper ?), do we take profit/cut loss or do nothing ? To me ability to sustain is already a good achievement. I also note that shopper traffics are still there and this is good for CMT malls.

Ex-Div in 27th July'17. Collect Dividend first lah. Think later.


Cheers

Cory
2017-0721






Jul 19, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170719

Here's another post on my recent trades but not all I can remember. The last time i post is here link. I try to stay as accurate as i can remember.


ASCENDAS REIT

I have managed to build back and more such that it has become one of my reit core holding. Using my basic TA skill, i thought 2.57 is a nice entry point but I start to dip for it at 2.62 and 2.58. I did sell some to resize my investment amount at 2.63. It now occupies 4%+ of my non-fixed equity. I am so glad to be back and with good 4 digits trading profit buffers. This investment is to plan for my next year returns and support of 6% dividends from it.


OKP

Did a punting on OKP when it dropped but miss the bottom in seconds. ( angry )...  so sold off my holding with some kopi money. I am not familiar with the future impact and feel MOS may not be good enough. This trade is basically for trying.


GLP

If you may know, I profited from recent takeover of GLP. This one is s bit of nerve. I have 12 lots originally. When it dropped to 2.76 prior to the announcement i sold 4 lots to re-size my exposure. Fortunately or so otherwise, the Offer is good. I benefited from the 8 lots remaining. And some from profits from the 4 lots sold. Not too bad for some one who is late into the GLP game just this year. 20% returns for a red dot speculation trade.


Design Studio

My exposure in this counter is quite large. I took some profit when it run up so that I can sleep better. This counter is still quite good considering the 10% dividend level and the company expected to run ok. Don't ask me can the performance be sustained. I don't know, and I am still vested. Just stay nimble I guess.


Cory
20170719












Jul 14, 2017

Cory Diary : Singtel 2017-0714

Let's start with some data background of Singtel. I do this fast. Apologize for any error and DYODD.

Since 2013, Singtel has been fluctuating within a big band of $3.3 to $4.5 range. During this time, annual distribution is about 17 cents ( not exact but growing ) which easily totaled roughly 90 cents. Right now the stock price is 60 cent below the top range. And current yield is about 4.4%. Revenue kind of flat.


About S$3B FCF annually. Last year we see a little dip to about dividend support level despite no noticeable increase in capex. As for Netlink Trust, never mind about the regulatory requirement. Netlink Trust IPO comes as a right time for Singtel. At 81 cents, they raised more than $2B which not only cover years of dividend support but also the increase of spectrum cost. On top of this,  $50 M recurring income from it.

I thought this is master stroke on realizing the value of Singtel asset. Considering Singtel retained 24.99%, Netlink still rest securely under Temasek hands. How long can the music last, let's evaluate again later with more quarterly reports.


Cory
20170714






Jul 7, 2017

Cory Diary : Accordia Golf Trust 20170707

This post is special. Is a sharing of Q&A with Brenda, Senior Manager, Investor Relations, AGT. Is rather informal so do not put a magnifying glass into it.  I am honored to have an opportunity to chat with Brenda to know the Trust better. Do note this is not an invitation to invest/sell/hold.


Q&A

1. Share about Continue Impairment loss from last Q report

Generally the impact is cashless and more on accounting purposes on P/L.

2. How do you view AGT in 3-5 years periods.

Viewing from coming Olympics context. AGT is more of Middle Class category of golf courses targeting leisure segment. So it won't be in the selection for it. Most of the golfers are locals. The focus is more on how to optimize weekday plays. There is also focus on schools and women to come to the courses.

3. How do we mitigate weather and natural disaster

There is limited thing we could do for weather. However, weather conditions are only short-term. It could be a bad weather year for 2016 while AGT has a warmer weather in 2015 (warmer weather is better for golf). One way is to have driving range. Insurance for natural disaster is financially not viable. The loss is more on revenue due to golf closure rather than any damage to the courses. For example, we closed at maximum 1 week for one of our golf course during the 2016 Kyushu earthquake.

4. Is there plan for expansion

There is loan coming up in august and will be the focus. There is still room for loan(current Loan-to-value is below 29%) and will be the preference, and rights issue is unlikely given the current Unit Price as and when there is expansion after.

5. Dividend distribution expectation

AGT hopes to continue its 100% distribution of Distributable Income Available. Currently, the mandate is to distribute 90% of its Distributable Income.


Cory
20170707


Jul 3, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170703


Here's my current holding.


REITs - This sector has been star performer in first half of 2017. However not all the same. I am fortunate to have quite a number of bright stars here. They easily constitute 40% of my portfolio. Bulk of my dividends hopefully for the years to come.

TELCO - The only possible segment which i feel there is still good room for 2nd half growth. Singtel's Netlink IPO is a catalyst. But Singtel should be more than that.

STI ES3 - I have reduced my holding largely. Nevertheless it is still quite a size-able amount in my portfolio. This move protected some of my earning this year if there is market wide retreat in 2nd half. I hope to have it build back at right price.

BOND/PREFERENCE - Not much except that I have Singapore Saving Bond removed from tracking.
I am still well invested in the SSB.

Global Logistic is the wild card for 2nd half. Let see how it goes. I have 75% confidence.
It will be great if the deal takes off and at good premium.

The Green has been boring and missing much from the run up in this 2nd Q.

Currently looking into Banks, CDG, Jumbo, Keppel, Wilmar and more REITs ....

Cory
20170703








Jun 30, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.


With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630










Jun 27, 2017

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT - 2

I blogged about Aims Reit exactly 2 months ago. Link here. Since then it has moved up nearly 5%. And this exclude dividends distributed. People is recognizing the return value. At current $1.47 price, the yield is about 7.5%. Still so good. My wish is the reit needs only to maintain their dpu performance.

Considering current investment climate, there is not better alternative that provide good value for money i feel personally. At this price range, I am not buying more as I have quite a significant exposure or so sadly because i feel there is still some room to go up but risk has to be mitigated. And neither am I selling even if the price indeed moves up.

So what would be a possible sell price ? At $1.605, dividend yields go just below 7%. So is not hard to achieve provided investors can understand the long term stability of this reit growth in dpu. What would de-rail my investment plan ? Macro event and the reit significant deterioration in their performance. At the mean time, continue riding the market doing nothing on this counter.


Cory
20170627








Jun 25, 2017

Cory Diary : Singapore Savings Bonds experience ( SSB )

This is the website of SSB. http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx
Every month SSB will update with new tranche for purchase with appropriate rates as below picture.




Purchase is simple online. I have tested few times using DBS website. Application is $2 each time.
Dividends credited to my DBS saving account after 6 months automatically.

To sell is not hard too as I have tested it literally. However do note your transaction and amount each time you purchase or withdraw as there is no easy access to SSB historical records that you can tell in the website when you sell. Bank statements in the web is backdated to 2 months so provide no helps too. However I do get paper mail statement as equity trades done.

The highest effective interests rate is only if you hold it for 10 years and is quite attractive considering is "risk-less". However if you withdraw like I did, the rates will be reduced per table of the link above and still not bad. There is a limit of 100K even if I want to put more unfortunately.

Unlike traded bond, there is no capital gain or loss. True capital protected in the sense less sovereign risk. Due to SSB nature, in my next dividend and investment reports, I will move them under Cash/Fixed deposit category instead. This will better reflect the right yield and portfolio investment equity returns. Meaning my equity annual dividends report will exclude SSB dividends.

I plan to maximize my allocation surely. It beats Fixed Deposits hand down.


Cory
20170625












Jun 17, 2017

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170617

Normally I do not comment much on my short term trades as I do a lot within a year if you have followed. As I have less creative ideas recently, I may as well talk a little on it.

Recently, I sold ASCENDAS REIT. If one who has been following this reit, it always seem to be in all time high (including dividends). Aiming for it is like forever. You will never get it cheap. And you will regret it if you don't. So what I did recently is to buy some only. And when price go up, I bought a little more for more buffer. And that's how I got my 10% profit within 6 months. So why do i want to sell it since is so hard to accumulate it ?

Well .... I do some maths and find this year has significant more run up in share price and that's  like 1.5 years of dividends and yield dropped below 6% so there is potential of much bigger correction to come. Well I could regret later but then money in pocket already and my 40K annual dividends will still be on track. I could have killed the golden goose. Hope not because I do like this one.

Here' the trade. So I am out-of-stock on this one.



If you also remembered, I blogged on needs for oversea earning exposure in reit. One of those is FRASERS L&I TR. I thought is a gem. Luck on my side, the stock run up significantly too. I sold some to par down my stake to original level. We termed it re-balance. I would probably show my trades after the dusts are settled. Double digits gain.

Finally, the next stock I sold is LIPPO MALLS TR shares. This one pains me too because I do like the Indonesia growth story and the REIT seems running well. As you may know is more than 8% yield stock. To relieve my pain, I sold only half. I have some concern on the recent management change in this trust and First Reit. And lock-in 8% gains.

There are more trades made but 3 mentioned here is enough for me today. Cash raised for more battles to come. Sad.


Cory
20170617




Jun 13, 2017

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Retracement Self-Learning

Fibonacci Retracement

As usual, I am not an expert in Technical tools. We can however try to use this to time our trade after FA. As dividend investor, getting in low enough is important so that we have a better pie in DPU and Capital gains if any.

Using Fibonacci Retracement can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

Thanks to Investing Note again which provide free charting and customization for my learning. https://www.investingnote.com




Again, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example again, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines too ?

As bad news came in last quarter report, we returned to below $0.70. Will it get worst. I bet there is good chance to retrace to $0.65 based on MACD further guidance. And this level maybe good entry point for me but we can decide later.

Cool ?


Cory
20170613











Jun 11, 2017

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611












Jun 10, 2017

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.



Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610



Jun 4, 2017

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604


My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.



From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406








May 28, 2017

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.


Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528


May 27, 2017

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170527

Charting in Excel is quite fun. Just figure out I can do a reverse of my Radar Chart. Be warned, will need to take a new dimension at looking it. The reverse radar overcomes concentration in the center and put more emphasis on stocks that occupies higher allocation than the others in the middle.



My trades already hit 74 YTD which is about half year mark and I am enjoying the process of allocation and divestment.

Increased my SSB ( Bond ) allocation with new funds. For more diverse and stable income. Upped Ascendas and Lippo Reits some. And started a small allocation  in AGT and Parkway Reit. Decided to remove FEHT.

Halcyon Agri removed. Commodity is still not in my blood. Cut loss less than 5k.
Took some profit on STI Index and Global Logistic to balance my loss. This lowered my Banks exposure more. Net changes bring up my portfolio yield some and laid the ground work for next year dividends.

XIRR YTD 6.9% excluding structured investment.(Book closure 29th Dec '17)
All-in-all I am having fun in the market place.

Risk anticipation will be market reaction to interest rate hikes which i have no control even though logically should not impact Reits much. Fact is for the past year Reit stock price has generally moved up and market experts are wrong again. Will Reits continues the uptrend .... better not unless we got better yields else we may see volatility.


Cory
20170527

May 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.


Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521


May 20, 2017

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance


Often people ask for annualized returns over the entire investment horizon of index or fund. This is wrong simply each human investment lifespan is limited to their relevant period and changes as we age. How the world managed financially 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 30 years ago and today can be very different too. Depending when we are investing actively determines our performance during this periods.

For myself, the active investment period is about few years before the global financial crisis till ongoing now. That's 10-12 years mark. Therefore, it is meaningless to me when fund promote their result across 20 years or 30 years horizon where tons of things can happen in-between.. 10 years before it may be mega bull or era where they face different government regulatory, technological or whatsoever industry in focus. If i have started the same, my annualized can also be different from today.

Not strictly speaking, the weight-age even for same period can be different. A single salaried person will have more and more money later into her career for investment whereas a married person may have lesser. This is crucial to understand. Because a millionaire today do not have a million dollar 15 years ago to invest to compare. For DIY Investors, your recent fund invested are likely one of your largest or heavier amount in your investment life. Recent market change can skews your returns a lot more personally.

Fund that start right before GFC 2008 and after can be just a year apart but their result can also be totally different. So we need to be very careful when reading materials given to us. How many people will know or remember this ?

A sample of Cory returns each year as below. Annualized whole period about 6.8%.




A peek on Temasek performance, their 10 years and 20 years mark are 6% annualized.
http://www.temasek.com.sg/investorrelations/portfolioperformance

GIC returns are a little complicated as they are oversea focus. A strong SGD will not help or fair. Using USD, is about 5.7% @ 20 years. This beats nominal MSCI index.
http://www.gic.com.sg/report/report-2015-2016/investment-report.html

Now, how about STI Index, my favorite. Using 1st Jan 2007 (updated) to now. Is only 0.28% annualized (updated). If we are to include dividends say 3.x% to round it off, that's 4%(updated). Dividends play a huge part in returns or damping growth depending which side you are in. 10 years before (1997) is about 5% including dividends..

Seems so far our CPF can still get the money needed. If this funds go much lower, either CPF has to give lesser, Land sales price has to go up, more tax from us or SGD will have to weaken. You choose.


Cory
20170520




May 18, 2017

Cory Diary : 2017 Q2 May Dividend Income Update

Most if not all my SG Portfolio has Ex-dividend this week. This year is special as that they were all within expected range which points to sustainability of the the Dividends.

For the 5 months of 2017, dividends in bag is $20,109. I am excited on the final figure at year end !

Dividend Income

To get the effect of how much growing dividends can be collected see below Cumulative chart. Patience is Everything. Has come a long way of investment learning.



About $10, 689 is from REIT/TRUST in this 2Qs. Remainders from Bonds and others.


Cory

20170518














May 16, 2017

Cory Diary : Singapore Tax Rate to Taiwan

Two things cannot escape in life. Death and Taxes. How do we compare with other countries in taxes ? Since i do not have more in-depth knowledge of most, I will do a rough estimate between Taiwan and Singapore.

Taiwan has a model kind of similar to some western countries in concept. In Taiwan, the medical and other benefits portion are funded separately and not part of the annual income tax. Nevertheless employees paid for it as part of the deductible in their salary. For simplification we will exclude them. Similarly we will not include Employer CPF contribution and relief in Singapore situation, and deductibles due to education and dependents in both countries.

Tax in Singapore Dollars at 1:22 rate

As you can see the tax in Taiwan is not competitive at all based on Income Tax formula.

People in $200K bracket, Singapore residents paid about 50% of what Taiwan residents would have to. No wonder the rich migrates to Singapore. 

But do we treat our poor badly ? From the above table, Singapore residents earning in S$40K bracket is only paying 17.5% of what a Taiwan residents would have paid.

This is a simplification. Are we far from reality and is this Hard Truth ?


Cory
20170516


May 14, 2017

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20170514


As I expand my Sg Equity size, feel is time to track the amount in my Net Worth chart. However data is not much but have to start somewhere. ( Yellow ). The effort is zero other than initial setup one time. This will give me guidance on my equity size relative to other lines.

Also did a one time adjustment starting on Jan'16 by removing my Property Net Asset out from the Blue line. Reason being they are not liquid for cash flow supports which is short term in nature. The other reason is the valuation is not easy to come by.

Net Worth 20170514













The Red Line is Net worth  which I manage to backdated till 2011. Would love to have more data before 2008 for my liquid portion in Blue but unfortunately it won't be possible with time passage. The Blue line is also my financial freedom line because is what I can tap on to generate returns that I can use quickly for property loan, Insurance, bills and daily needs. They are primarily supported by Salary Income and Equities.

What really unplug my growth gear ( beside 2008 GFC )  is PRC Market shake up in 2015 mid that set me back by at least 6 months. That's how integrate Singapore economy is with China now. It also takes me some period to put back my equity after. This line is make possible for meaningful change data as I move to dividend style of investing.

There is another line I like to add is the Expense line. If I have to do this directly, the task will be huge. Maybe I should look from the angle of amount of saving to deduce. I am probably too late in the game to track this as I have moved to higher spending gear ....



Cory
20170514











May 13, 2017

Cory Diary : Sector Investment

To start with, there is no deliberate attempt to manage by sector in my portfolio. But unwittingly, I like to have stability, growth and risk factors to consider.

Not surprisingly I should see "Fixed Structure" type of returns, Stable growth that tag to local economy, Broad based diversification through index, basic staples/necessity, dividends investing needs, emergency fund parking and some spots picking.

Glance through some charts and got this Treemap chart in excel on my portfolio data.


I like this representation a lot. This tell my Finance is under represented though mitigated by Index. Hope you like this sharing. Have fun with your investment !


Cory
20170513






May 9, 2017

Cory Diary : Cory Ideal Singapore Portfolio


Has been playing with Excel for sometime and surprise i could do below. Not sure what you call this chart. What I like is it tells me my investment categories and exposure by segment, and by counter in a stroke. Take me sometime to absorb the picture at first but it becomes clearer after from the grouping. The rings are the investment sizes.



Here's the breakdown on what I thought to start with towards what a Million Portfolio will look like after by year end. Yield will be around 4.6%. Do you see any risks or concern ?


The BLUEs ...

STI ETF basically covers a lot of Banks and Singtel, and at the most outer rung of the circle. However I could do more to include more banks directly. Currently this the main mitigation on recent banks run up. SINGTEL is relatively heavier in the portfolio. I am still monitoring closely. Telco business is tough but being a regional telco there is economic of scale and leverages.The lower dividends policy than others mean there are fund for growth and better compete with competitors.


YELLOWs ...

REITs marked in yellow are a key segment of dividends. They are in various stage of buildup.
I did a re-balance recently lowering First Reit slightly for Lippo Mall Reit considering they are from same sponsor to reduce systematic risk i thought.. Maybe I should have just increase Lippo instead.

AA Reit my favorite currently due to much work is done by management to improve their returns for the future. Trusts have better regional exposure elements to mitigate S$ currency.


The REDs ...

Are my recent plunge. They are more short - mid term. More speculative end of mine. If you do not know why Global Logistic is there just search around. ValueMax is one of a kind that I have missed. I feel is mid risk but sized enough for me to hold long as needed.  If you notice I have included Halcyon as a possible black horse. Nevertheless a commodity stock in rubber. I feel is time to get into some of this. QAF is another play though can be considered basic essentials. I may move it out of red zone once the stock is more stable and if I am still holding. Design Studio is more a faith plunge base on their previous quarter performance. Not much knowledge to talk of.

 I am really curious how will they do in 2017.


The WHITEs ...

They are Bonds and Preference Shares. One may notice Singapore Saving Bonds (SSB). This is where I parked my emergency fund for short term. The remainder are for mid term funding needs. The risk level is quite wide if you have noticed. Example some Hyflux PS at the most inner circle of the portfolio.


The GREENS ...

They are the basic essentials. I thought is good to have some. Sheng Siong growth is getting more constrains but still a profitable business. The China investment will take some time at much risk. Thai Bev is quite in play.



Cory
20170509






May 6, 2017

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Interim Q2 2017 May Update


The Market for REITs have been exciting for this period of results announcement and media has been reporting good returns of a number of strong Reits. So is this ride ending ? Apparently the decision this week not to increase rate by Fed seems has no clear felt impact to the market as it will likely be on next. I have been holding tight on what I have and waiting .... . During this time I have done more blogging instead.

As there are 5 more dividends counters waiting to be Ex-div so I will just leave that for next article. To spice up this update, I have included XIRR Interim Q2 '17 May for comparison.




Some of my re-balance actions I took is to lower my First Reit exposure for Lippo mall. Appears it doesn't really matters to the return as both did well in their operation net net. My five speculative positions seems break even within. Not all quarterly result is out yet on them so we shall see how I do after. I sold some of my earlier SSB Bond in exchange for higher interests last month after Interests. Intent to max out my allocation at appropriate time. With current 1%-2.3% range, this will push down my score as expected.

Singtel moved a tack lower however I am not definite on the impact will be. Market sentiments not helping. Looking forward to the coming result. Exposure is a single digit percentage of my portfolio.

STI Index did really well due to the banks again. Chances are the market will continue to go up just that I am not sure it will be STI. I have so far been mitigated due to low double digits exposure to STI index. Super Bulls would have arrived if we see both Singtel and Oil/Gas surge returns. So we aren't in bubble territory yet I feel.


Outlook to watch

1. Oil Price
2. SGD/AUD/USD/NTD Currency
3. Telco Markets

Cory
20170506




May 2, 2017

Cory Diary : Do REITs take back more than they give ?

REITs have been in SGX for long time. Despite that people still has concern whether they take more than they give. If I am to invest in REITs obviously the benchmark will not just be more than they take only. They need to give enough back in the form of capital gain or dividends that are way above inflation in total.

This concept is pretty simple.

REITs Investment Returns = Capital Gain/Loss + Dividends , and Annualized

For the sake of a safer example, I will pick a stable REIT CMT. Yes, the one which I have blogged recently. CMT owns many Malls in Singapore whose tenant income are tied to tourist visits, impact of internet shopping and the local economy. And Funan Mall in the midst of AEI. I will take a peek on CMT for past 6 years performance starting from 1 May '11 ( after Ex-div ) till today.

During this period there are no retail rights issue which makes my calculation easier to compute. To make thing simple, I will use Yahoo monthly chart to calculate CMT annualized return on the stock price against today 1.97 closing. XIRR = -0.08.% which imply a capital loss. And then lookup on the total dividends distributed on the measured periods. Total : $0.6276. Combine both of them as table below.











So annualized returns for CMT for the past 6 years are 5.28%. What this mean is for every $10,000 dollar invested in CMT, you get $528 annually. A total of $3,168 or 31.7% for the total period.

So at least for CMT, is a Myth that REITs are not a good investment vehicle. Like any other stock, when to invest and sell is important. REITs are no exception. Will CMT continues to prosper ? That is for their current management to answer.

Please DYODD.

Cory
20170502






May 1, 2017

Cory Diary : What do people live for?


Saw this from a friend message link.


Investment is for quality retirement. Don't retire for sake of it and live like a beggar.
Strive for Quality Living. That's will be the benchmark

Once I realized that, things become clear. Investment for Income has become more important so that I have the money to do what I can with my time.

But I need to remember too ...


Being Rich is not about how much you have but how much you can give.

Start small.

Happy Labor Day !

Cory
20170501

Apr 27, 2017

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT

I have love-hate relationship with this reit. This counter has almost 8% yield returns but despite my dividends strategy I do not makes much from it that I should in my past trades. In fact, due to my skepticism with it, I always buy and sell the wrong time. And the problem lies with confidence and model of this company.

Trying to time AA REIT is really a bad move. Not understanding the future plan of the REIT result in diminish confidence. And not absorbing the dividend strategy concept is another huge mistake.

AA Reit just announced their 4Q 2017 today.



QoQ DPU up 0.4%. YoY is actually down 5.8%. So what is it. Good or bad ? That's depend how we look at it. If compare to one other REIT which was in shareholder limelight, AA reit ability to hold up so well so far is good. And I know is not by chance it does.

And if we are to measure YoY, -5.8% seems bad. Really bad ? Put it another way, try to balance 5.8% reduction of DPU and ability to deliver 8% yield. I am happy with it as long we have good DPU trajectory and not the Stock price directly. That's the key I need to understand.

Here 's the DPU I have found and put into tables.



If we have look at the left chart, there is reducing DPUs overtime. However if we to look at the right chart, the DPU is very stable. Both chart is actually from high yield AA Reit. They are actually the same data presented in different way.

So the decision to make is simple. Is the DPU returns enough even if it does reduce. If so, stock price volatility is good for me to get cheaper.

Cheers

Cory
20170427








Apr 22, 2017

Cory Diary : Quality of Life


I often seen posts on best place to retire. Be it daily necessity, bills or health care. One of the primary reason is cost. Frankly I think this people get it all wrong.

The Best Place to retire is where Love is. Where friends are. Where Home is. Going to faraway land, cheap and lower standard of hygiene ... that's escapism. Out of no choice. Desperation. Worst still, alone. Sorry if I poke too hard. Is a poke anyway. Greener pasture is always on the other side till you are on the other side.

Of course there are always exception so for these people, be relieved there is an escapism mental route for your reasoning. But I know deep in my heart, when I died, I like my grave, ash or whatsoever to be near home of my birth just like our elders who were from China they want to go back to mainland and visit their childhood days.

For average doe in Singapore, who are willing to work for a decent living, manage your saving and invest prudently, frankly is not hard at home. The most expensive is housing and compared to many countries, locally is relatively way better and cheaper for same quality of estate, environment, law, safety, medical and salary scale. We also have the option to rent like many people do in others countries as well which are a norm there. It boils down to expectation.

I have a single friend, who are wealthy enough to buy a small Condo but instead go for 3 room hdb. I question why not a 5 room but to him 3 room is just what he needs. And he decides from day one not to drive which save another huge sum of expenses and hardly affects his life. Personally to me he is a little too frugal but what am I to him ?


My Country, My Home.

BTW is a Poke. To make myself think on my reasoning,. I will never ... hopefully ... due to mainly cost.

Cory

20170422

Apr 20, 2017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 1Q17 ( CMT )

When I last blogged about CMT in 28th Jan'17, the stock price on 31st Jan'17 was $1.94. For people who are interested can refer to earlier blog article on CMT 4Q16 HERE. Since then, what has happened ?

There were no distribution since we just Ex-div in 26th Jan'17. Stock price $2.01 as of today 20th Apr'17. Gain of 3.6%. CMT posts today 20th Apr'17 after trading hours, stable 1Q 2017 distribution per unit of 2.73 cents. Achieves higher distributable income despite closure of Funan for redevelopment. Result as below table. As at 31 March 2017, CMT’s average cost of debt and aggregate leverage were 3.2% and 35.3% respectively.














The next table is the comparison with other investment. I let the table speaks to you. If we are to invest in 12 month fixed Deposit in XXXX for 0.35% return, it will takes collective 16 years ! How many 16 years do we left ?




















The last table is CMT properties. They are major name locally. As mentioned in my previous article, very hard to go wrong with this REIT. Stock Price will fluctuates with Market Sentiments no doubt but which direction will it goes long run ?



















Further update - 20170421
CMT’s 40.0% interest in Raffles City Singapore and 30.0% interest in Westgate.


Cory
20170420

Apr 19, 2017

Cory Diary : Job Replacement


Recently one of my staff move on. I am happy for her. Truly. What interesting is after. I need to request for replacement. What surprise me is that my business HR want me to justify why I need replacement which to me suppose to be routine re-fill of position.

Mind you, the company is doing well. So in my head is why are we spending time doing this needless exercise. We have hundreds/thousands of employees. As long is within business allocation of headcounts, why are we doing such. After a month, the replacement request got approved.

If every business or stock I invested in, their Business HR inside are doing this, I am a happy shareholder because I know the business watch their cost regardless of market condition.

Take heel, HR !



Cory
20170419

Apr 18, 2017

Cory Diary : Stock Market Volatility 1997 - 2016

The following information is plucked from various sources in the internet and summarized. I am doing that in view of recent North Korea crisis and Syria conflict in Trump era. I do not think we reach market crisis level yet. What I found is that 50% dropped is a major number observed when there are major crisis. The lesser ones are mere correction around 15% range.








Stock Market Crisis


The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. The crisis started in Thailand. Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. STI index severely impact dropping more than 50%.

The Dot-com Bubble was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation that occurred from 1995 to 2001. The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999–2001. In exact, lasted about 2 years in period. STI dropped around 50% from 1999 Dec peak.

This followed quickly by SARS in early Mar 2003. STI hardly impacted even though there were huge fear initially. Can't even see a beep in the monthly chart.

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. It began in 2007 with a crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the USA, and developed into a full-blown international banking crisis with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. STI crashed around 50% from peak in 2007.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster initiated primarily by the tsunami following the Tōhoku earthquake on 11 March 2011. There were a small dip to STI Index when we look back on STI historical chart. People who have hold their equity has hardly any impact. People who average down has a windfall on average.

The 'August 2011 stock markets fall' was the sharp drop in stock prices in August 2011 in stock exchanges. This was due to fears of contagion of the European sovereign debt crisis, concerns over the slow economic growth of the United States and its credit rating being downgraded. For STI that's about 15% correction.

The Chinese stock market turbulence began with the popping of the stock market bubble on 12 June 2015 and ended in early February 2016. By 8–9 July 2015, the Shanghai stock market had fallen 30 percent over three weeks as 1,400 companies, or more than half listed, filed for a trading halt in an attempt to prevent further losses. STI not spared either as our economy are more integrated with growing China. STI dropped more than 20%. However is nowhere near the major crisis level we seen in percentage seen.

Brexit, World Markets tumble after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Investors lost more than the equivalent of 2 trillion United States dollars on 24 June 2016, making this day the worst single day drop in history, in absolute terms, according to data from S&P Global. The losses were extended to a combined total of the equivalent of 3 trillion dollars by additional selling on 27 June 2016 according to data from S&P Global. Hardly any practical dent to STI Index.


From above, appears major crisis are mainly has financial engineered implication that came to blow. They corrected roughly 50% whereas European Debt Crisis and Chinese Stock turbulence are more on political resolve and speculation. As for those other lesser crisis that are not result of financial,  there are no prolong impact to us locally. Thus, there aren't clear STI impact.



Cory
20170418










Apr 16, 2017

Cory Diary : Trades of Marco Polo Marine

Browsing through my past trades in this counter. Decided to cut loss in early 2015. Net net still make some profit if we exclude opportunity costs. What if  I had not ?



It has been more than 2 years since. Will the company figure a way out ?
I wish them well sincerely.


Cory
20170416



Apr 15, 2017

Cory Diary : Dividend Play - Part 2

Dividend Play essentially is about investing in business that are driven to return profits to shareholders. Management naturally will be driven to efficient their operation on what they have after. A strong management has the ability to do that consistently over time. Constantly churning out dividends to shareholders and making use of what has been left to continue to optimize and grow their returns.

A weak manager can constantly ask for money to grow the empire. Many can to fatten their pocket while reducing shareholder returns. The worst situation is when management has too much cash and wasted on lousy investments or to grow their revenue with no meaningful profits. This is where their guard is down. The thirst to do better is not seen. Some maybe even tempted to have their hands on it. The legal way will be to pay themselves very well on shareholders expense.

Surely there will be exception to norm. However they are really exception. Investment is about not losing money and not exchanging for poor deals. A Master said that in his two rules of investment. I looks for result not words from management. And what better way than continue to give me dividends while growing the business by optimizing what they have.

And this will be my main strategy moving forward in my investment.


Cheers

Cory
20170415



Apr 14, 2017

Cory Diary : Million dollar home

Few people would have remembered, I blogged about $1M home goal few years ago. To be exact is 4 years ago as per link here. Happy or sad to some, depending on each people felt level, i got mine.  If we include inflation over this period maybe in current dollar term would be 10% lesser in purchasing power. What this mean is Million Dollar home is just a matter of time.

The plan for this home will be for my family for the initial years as I am often based oversea.The reason I like about this property is due to the central location and amenities. I may not be able to get what I want from another project. The other reason is I felt as I blogged earlier in another article, is home has to get smaller for the same price. The cost of government is not going to go lowered and will need land income to support with time. So delaying any further will be asking for smaller home assuming everything else equal.

In the current market situation, property has been held artificially suppressed for more than 3 years already. Will this go on ? Yes, why not. Forever, hardly. Taking a look at the private property index, it has come down 10%, back to 2010 level. link. That's a 10 years chart replicated below.





















There is still some room to go lower but not much I feel. But it could be another ride up and I would miss the rare opportunity to upgrade. We can't live forever and bring our property and money to the grave. We work hard so that we have better quality of life for ourselves or our love ones. If there is appreciation on the property, is bonus. If go lower, is occupied anyway for use.

Fortunately I have enough saving for the down payment and increase my portfolio as well. Prepared more than 6 years of cash funds too which I plan to have them mainly in SSB ( 100k limit ) and FD. Surely slight delay in purchasing helps me financially too.  I foresee this will likely be my retirement home if i choose to return to Singapore, my Country, my Homeland, my Birthplace one day.



Cory
20170414