Jan 28, 2017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 4Q16

Investing in CMT is one of a kind. It can hardly go wrong  if you have taken a peek on it's portfolio of assets. The issue with it will be the actual return after stock price fluctuation. And so investing in CMT is more important in the entry price and the yield Maths will work itself out.

The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.

Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.

What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?


Cory
20170128


Notes:

"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore 

- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."

"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'

Cory Diary : 2017 Chicken Out

Did my second speculative trade of the year for fun. This is after I notice there is still some upside for Keppel since last year low. By the way I am no fan of Oil and Gas or Ships. And no margins. Saw my profit went up to more than $800 before it came crashing down after the poor result announced. This hit me back to fundamental reality or am I ?

Nevertheless I Chicken Out and close my positions with some Ang Pao money for the year.






The XIRR is 82% because I achieved $382 profits within the month - short period. If I am able to continuous perform of similar periods to full year, it would have been 82% returns of my investment. This would also mean keppel stock price will have to jump by similar amount from my entry position which is unlikely to happen.

Understanding another way, the actual return is 3.2% for less than a month effort. For same performance throughout the year, this will be 82% due to investment compounding of the 3.2%
.

Cory
20170128

Jan 22, 2017

Cory Diary : Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1c17

I actually blogged a lot on FCT. My poor memory was thinking it was a year ago. (Corrected)
















Key Takeaway

NAV $1.93. Last closing share price is $1.965. Slightly above book value. Management has said they will maintain 100% payout of roughly 5.9% yield.

The AEI trough expects in May'17 and recover after. AEI completion in Sept'17. Expecting possible further few percentage reduction in NPI in the next report.

Gearing at 29.7% and the weighted average debt maturity was 2.6 years. The all-in average cost of borrowings in 1Q17 was 2.1%. FCT has approximately 56% of its borrowings on fixed or hedged-to-fixed interest rates. Good !

There is potential of lower share price for 1st half of 2017 but I believe the dividends will be able to cover more than it. And with the potential boost in future DPU in the 2nd half of 2017, this maybe a relatively attractive stock to own.


Cory
20170122



Jan 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Financial Updates 20170121


How I will approach this is to have my Financial Charts up for evaluation. This data is computed automatically through excel. So theoretically I am able to produce them everyday with little effort.

The first chart is my Net Worth. I have this tracked since 2007 to see the Market crash horribly the next year. Unfortunately this is the furthermost that I have tracked as I would like to have data for another decade more. I find this chart fascinating because I am curious how net worth chart looks like in data over a long period. There is more than 9 years worth of data.

This year I added RED line to truly measure my Net Worth which include my Pension, CPF, Insurance Values and CPF Shares. I have the $ scale removed as usual for privacy.
















There is a slight divergence to my surprise between the lines. Does this mean my "locked Investment" is doing better in growth than my investable assets.

The other chart below is asset allocation. Net Property means Value after deducting outstanding loan.
I am still not investing enough. Feel rather bad myself so I may have to reduce it down to 30% this year. And if Market allows to 26% cash and FD.

Cash Buffer for property payment in SG Bank is over 6 years.  This may continue to go up if I stay employed as I am a Value Saver. I plan to maintain this high level of buffer.

Investment wise, 14% in Structured Returns lowers my overall portfolio returns. I hope to expand my Stock Equity if market allowed, by 6% allocation more to achieve better yield..



I am not doing much with CPF other than shifting enough into SA account to earn higher interest rates. The remaining OA CPF to further backup my housing loan. Overall, as you can see I am rather conservative in my financial but I am happy because I could be worst.

If you notice something striking or concern, feel free to comment.


Cory
20170121



Cory Diary : United States of America




At the lowest point of America during 2008 GFC, Bush transitioned power to Obama. He comes in the nick of time from nowhere to bring America back up again. What even more amazing is that he is black. A White America who has appointed their First Black President instead of the First Women President. Who can say this is Uncle Sam other than the most extreme North Korea. America today has so many races in it, that it truly represent the world nation races. It is no longer the white America despite they still form the largest proportion. The notion of white american is rather misleading today especially with a Black President at the helm who has Osama under his belt. Islamic radicals could not truly name America White Imperialist or infidels. And in any battle field losses, it could be a Latino, Muslim or Chinese in the US Marine Corps.

The economic recovery is long but it does. However Wall straits still go unpunished. American Military getting soft. Economic policy not optimal. Home infrastructure breaking down. Obamacare comes at the time when others priorities are critical too. A growing whites unemployed or miss the boat. Who says we can't keep manufacturing job in America. Why can't the coal mine be re-opened ? Trump challenged the status quote that people badly needed. Their forefathers who bring American to today, and left behind by Washington politicians who are more interested in their own well-beings. 

This is the softness of Obama with his ladies. There is a lack of brute leadership needed at the helm of the world only super power. Obama has gone soft especially at diplomatic circles. He is afraid to right thing up and tolerance to other nations as long it does not break. Unfortunately when it finally breaks, the price to pay maybe too high to fix. One good example is North Korea. United States has many years to prevent nuke from being developed but he failed. Now the north korea is developing ICBM and I am sure Obama will fail again. He lacks the resolve as a world leader to take on North Korea hard. Does he needs a nuke land in America City before he acts or the technology spreads to Islamic radicals in the form of Dirty Nuke ?

Hillary will be another Obama. Nothing much will change. At the right time, Trump appears to fix all this. And American will renew itself. That's the strength of America. The foresight of the forefathers on the constitutions. Never before actions are already taken before a Presidential Elect even take office. He has talked on what's needed and the rest is action. One of his most powerful tool apparently for an oldman is twitter. With an election budget so low, handicapped by his racist, sexist and brute remarks, he depends of Internet to beat Hillary against all odds. How he did it is because the media basically paint an erroneous picture of Donald Trump. He is against illegal Mexican and many of the crimes are indeed by them. This does not mean he hate Mexicans. He hires many of them in his organization. He makes crude remarks on women but that is certain women. He loves his daughter and his wife, and put them in the limelight. Is the media who cook up the bad image.This is how bad media has becomes to drive their own agenda. Some of them has become soft like Obama. Some like to be as righteous to foreigners as their own citizens which doesn't make sense. 

He practically bypass media control of his speeches and connect to his ground directly. Amazing strategy that works. Is pretty ironic the very people who support technology discourage his use. This is especially when there is mis-spelling or error link being blown out of proportion by the media. What they have forgot is that Trump trumps on being trumped by the Media. He basically fixed Washington as so it seems. Interesting he bring his whole family to Washington to "Rule" America like a dynasty. LKY and LHL with GCT in-between, is a small piece of cake.

The new world order will depends how Trump execute what he says. I am sure the Wall will go up, Trade re-negotiated and Currency fixed. And a large low income population will be up-lifted who was left behind by previous presidents who are source of high crime rate. What be more concern is foreign affair. How will it be managed and the outcome can be quite unpredictable. Will US companies start to remit money back to America ? That will be a huge inflow. He is not perfect and will make mistakes, I bet he will. But he is willing to change. And Americans willing to give him the chance to change. America needs to be toughen up.


God Bless America

Welcome President Trump


Cory
20170121

Jan 12, 2017

Cory Diary : Value Spending


Since young there is not much money to spend. Will always use up my allowance on titbits, pencils, rubbers, meals etc. Looking back, there is not much to save anyway and spending what given is a kind of natural thing to do. In my mindset allowance given is for me to spend and my parents are really good at it on how much I really need on food, bus fare and some extras. So I could say in my childhood I have no concept about saving.

Upon adolescent, this comes to me naturally about spending what I have but there is no crave for things beyond my allowances given. I have never ask for increase to spend or buy something. Life to me is simple. Just spend what given. And it becomes a mental routine. Looking back at it, is quite amazing that I have never thought of how to increase my money or crave for things beyond. That's the "Nerd'iness" in me I guess.

When I started working, saving just grew by "itself". Often I took Taxi as needed, provide allowance to my parents and "toys" I need. Being on time for work is important and I am exchanging time with money. Parents are important to me and allowance is a naturally thing I have to do. To re-charge myself i indulge in personal interests. Every month there be some money left to build up on. Interestingly there is still no deliberate attempt to save. There is one important aspect though is that my overall expenses never exceeds what I had earn monthly. When time comes for marriage, housing, renovation and holidays there are no lack of money because my requirements are not high in the first place. And it occur to me as I grow older that I look for Value and Need. For example when I shop for aircon, there are different pricing and capability, and I will look for higher end key feature at the lower cost of what is available. Not the cheapest. There is no brand stigma. Samsung is one of them.

When I started to learn to buy stocks, I started with playing warrant shares because there is an affiliation on their ticks and  the savings required are not much but you must have some. Frankly my broker is more nervous than me when I allowed one stock to expire. She almost screamed at me. That's just $1500 many many year ago. No small sum and it doesn't strike me as an issue either. I made $10, 000 in my first few trades just based on a few investment logic. She is still my broker today and she is not complaining any more.

Till today this continues in my purchase of stocks for Value. Yes I have much more money today because I focus primarily on my work but expenses are still kept quite low level. More than 50% of my annual income are saved each year. Is not that I like to hoard the cash, is just that I do not know how to spend them all needlessly. There is no dedicate effort to save. Income just grow with the job which I focused on doing well. And with investment income taking off,  this really helps to put my financial in really good shape.


Cory
20170112




Jan 3, 2017

Cory Diary : Summary of 2016 and Record Dividend


We have Trump elected and Stock up. Continuing Oil crisis but a pickup of the Banking sector. Survived a retrenchment exercise and have a larger team. We have a shock during Bre-EXIT but market climbed back quickly erasing all the losses. Oil Price moves above $50 due to OPEC Agreement. We have weaken Gold Price of $1159. S$ weakened to support internal factors which is really good news at current scenario for Singapore.

Every year I have an investment plan for next. This year is different. I have yet thought through.
I need to read and travel more to think about it I guess :)

On Personal front for 2016,

Dividends Income
Dividends Income hits $36,025. Averaging $3,000 monthly. Actual new high. It will be nice to maintain this level for 2017 at minimum. People who are interested in my dividend increase journey can follow-up on my page link http://corylogics.blogspot.sg/p/portoflio.html

Bonds
This year also mark my first foray into SSB of roughly 2% effective returns. This does lower my overall investment yield but gives a broader income base to complement my fixed deposits and loan repayment redundancy needs. For now, this works well as long as I am working.

Equity
XIRR is 4.3% which is lower than my earlier months mainly due to lower share price in a number of blue chips. While this still beats STI negative returns largely I feel my investment can do even better. Nevertheless I did well in avoiding major losses. Notably two of them are Starhub and MTQ.

Salary and Bonus
Nice adjustment this year and a relatively strong bonus. Nothing to shout about but again thankful for what has been given as they don't come free and easy.

Despite all given, what I am most grateful is that my team members are in Good Health and Happy.

Thank you God for all the Blessing.
Happy 2017 !


Cory
20170103