Cory Diary : Portfolio update 20151012

If someone has said in the beginning of the year that China will be the main reason that STI enters correction territory it will be quite hard to accept. Such is the market dynamic. Hard to anticipate even for expert.

Is the correction over with recent days run up ? Well just looking at the 1 yr and 2 yr charts, seems so. However 5 yr and 10 yr charts are yet confirm. That's my own view. Time will tell !

My portfolio ytd went down -5% at the worst period and recovered to -2.6%. STI still at -10% today.
Relative wise i am doing ok but i could have done much better if i have cut loss faster as said in my earlier article.

For those data craze, Equity at 37%. Cash/FD 39%, Structured Investment/Bond 11% and others.
China could have cause another major crisis. It didn't so far. Else i could have tap my war fund.

Decided to sell Saizen Reit as i feel the Japanese yen will continue it's weakening mid term and this gives me some anxiety despite all those hedging in place. Hope to find a replacement soon. Still holding to some Starhub shares though no increase. I feel the impact of 4th Telco will be mitigated by immigration long term.

I sleep well with current portfolio set up and that's all matter. cheers.


Cory 20151012

Cory Diary : Traps to Avoid

Portfolio Management


Land Mine  ( 地雷 )

As the name feared, the misfortune of stepping on one is terrible. Will likely to have a limp blown off. A dent that is not easy to recover from. In stock context probably -50% to complete loss in a counter and depending on it's size in the portfolio it can be quite damaging to my overall returns.

The fewer stocks I have in my portfolio, the higher my concentration. Too many stocks and i will exceed my bandwidth to monitor them.


Growth Stocks  ( 成长股 )

High PE typically. To maintain this story the growth needs to be there to sustain. Below expectation news or even loss may have double blows to the stock price. When I foresee possible slower growth in the future is it time to take something off the table.

This can also be terminated early due to pump and dump situation enacted by syndicate. A syndicate can comprise of business news editor, analyst, broker, banker, insider, forum/blog manipulator and speculators. They will use means to push up stock with convincing storyline after securing sizeable position.


Doubling Down  ( 双倍下注 )

Can also include averaging down or similar methods. Some people has the concoction that stock price fluctuates within a fixed band. That stock works like newton theory. While so far it works for DJIA / STI Indexes over medium-long period and higher, company stock can go to zero value or stay low for life.

If the mindset is like gambling, this can be dangerous. Stock market is a place where price can be manipulated or influenced. The future of the company lies with the touch of people that manages it. Therefore bias. Thus, the outcome can be worst than going to casino to gamble.

Few of the traits i seen on successful turnaround is change of management (competent), was hit by black swan event, due to bad market sentiment, have management integrity and having strong moat.


Dividends  ( 分红 )

Ability to generate cash flow to reward shareholder is a good indication on the health of the company to most layman. Be careful if company issues rights, borrow more or cash calls that exceed returns. At the same time keep watch on potential capital loss if any that may negates many years of dividend.


Market Trend  ( 市场走势 )

Going against market trend can be mind blowing to my portfolio negatively. When a particular industry is in possible down trend for a long period, will it better to re-balance my portfolio ? Some people can spot the gem against the tide. Good for them. That's my bonus.

I can do the maths on it. Some stock gives good cash flow and i maybe ok to hold if is medium term. However if the business change is more fundamental maybe I need to change.


Cory 20150829

Cory Diary : Market Fear

I have been working on my SUM on getting a good yield for past months but couldn't get a good discount on equity that i am comfortable with. Every time i look back to 2008 financial crisis price and i will shook my head. If i have done so and so, i would have been shaking leg like AK do. Well not exactly like him. But you know what i mean ?

Fast forward today, chance upon it, thanks to Shang Hai Stock bubbles and slow demand, the world in chaos. FEAR set in. What-if the market falls further ? A dead cat bounce ? Past data may not correlate to today ?

No Action is an Action too ! 

A check on the STI chart there is a huge gallop dive. I decided to take additional position in STI index. A spread out stake in Banks, Telco and the Blues. A calculated risk but likely help me support at least average 7% returns as the upside is very good for mid to long term even if it falls further.

Cory 20150825