Cory Diary : Singtel 2017-0714

Let's start with some data background of Singtel. I do this fast. Apologize for any error and DYODD.

Since 2013, Singtel has been fluctuating within a big band of $3.3 to $4.5 range. During this time, annual distribution is about 17 cents ( not exact but growing ) which easily totaled roughly 90 cents. Right now the stock price is 60 cent below the top range. And current yield is about 4.4%. Revenue kind of flat.

About S$3B FCF annually. Last year we see a little dip to about dividend support level despite no noticeable increase in capex. As for Netlink Trust, never mind about the regulatory requirement. Netlink Trust IPO comes as a right time for Singtel. At 81 cents, they raised more than $2B which not only cover years of dividend support but also the increase of spectrum cost. On top of this,  $50 M recurring income from it.

I thought this is master stroke on realizing the value of Singtel asset. Considering Singtel retained 24.99%, Netlink still rest securely under Temasek hands. How long can the music last, let's evaluate again later with more quarterly reports.


Cory
20170714

Cory Diary : Accordia Golf Trust 20170707

This post is special. Is a sharing of Q&A with Brenda, Senior Manager, Investor Relations, AGT. Is rather informal so do not put a magnifying glass into it.  I am honored to have an opportunity to chat with Brenda to know the Trust better. Do note this is not an invitation to invest/sell/hold.


Q&A

1. Share about Continue Impairment loss from last Q report

Generally the impact is cashless and more on accounting purposes on P/L.

2. How do you view AGT in 3-5 years periods.

Viewing from coming Olympics context. AGT is more of Middle Class category of golf courses targeting leisure segment. So it won't be in the selection for it. Most of the golfers are locals. The focus is more on how to optimize weekday plays. There is also focus on schools and women to come to the courses.

3. How do we mitigate weather and natural disaster

There is limited thing we could do for weather. However, weather conditions are only short-term. It could be a bad weather year for 2016 while AGT has a warmer weather in 2015 (warmer weather is better for golf). One way is to have driving range. Insurance for natural disaster is financially not viable. The loss is more on revenue due to golf closure rather than any damage to the courses. For example, we closed at maximum 1 week for one of our golf course during the 2016 Kyushu earthquake.

4. Is there plan for expansion

There is loan coming up in august and will be the focus. There is still room for loan(current Loan-to-value is below 29%) and will be the preference, and rights issue is unlikely given the current Unit Price as and when there is expansion after.

5. Dividend distribution expectation

AGT hopes to continue its 100% distribution of Distributable Income Available. Currently, the mandate is to distribute 90% of its Distributable Income.


Cory
20170707

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170703

Here's my current holding.

REITs - This sector has been star performer in first half of 2017. However not all the same. I am fortunate to have quite a number of bright stars here. They easily constitute 40% of my portfolio. Bulk of my dividends hopefully for the years to come.

TELCO - The only possible segment which i feel there is still good room for 2nd half growth. Singtel's Netlink IPO is a catalyst. But Singtel should be more than that.

STI ES3 - I have reduced my holding largely. Nevertheless it is still quite a size-able amount in my portfolio. This move protected some of my earning this year if there is market wide retreat in 2nd half. I hope to have it build back at right price.

BOND/PREFERENCE - Not much except that I have Singapore Saving Bond removed from tracking.
I am still well invested in the SSB.

Global Logistic is the wild card for 2nd half. Let see how it goes. I have 75% confidence.
It will be great if the deal takes off and at good premium.

The Green has been boring and missing much from the run up in this 2nd Q.

Currently looking into Banks, CDG, Jumbo, Keppel, Wilmar and more REITs ....

Cory
20170703

Cory Diary : XIRR Performance - Final Q2 2017 June Update

Today is the last day of Q2 '17. After my May Month Interim, managed to buy back, and more on Ascendas Reit, and FLT Reit which I earlier sold some this week. Glad with given the chance to fill back the hole I dig in my portfolio before the next REITs reporting season starts. I have also done more trading but it maybe too hard to blog each of them. Portfolio trend is lesser STI Index, due to strong run in banks.

Here's Q2'17 result. A further improvement from interim Q2 on link here.

With STI YTD returns about 12% currently, Cory Q2 returns of 9.8% YTD requires a little more ( excl. Div ) to catch-up. However compared to start of the year, the result has largely improved. Few things did well to improve my returns.

Good
- Regional exposure through Reits
- Singtel impact by 4th Telco is minimal compared to others

Bad
- QAF continue softening this week



Cory
20170630

Cory Diary : AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL REIT - 2

I blogged about Aims Reit exactly 2 months ago. Link here. Since then it has moved up nearly 5%. And this exclude dividends distributed. People is recognizing the return value. At current $1.47 price, the yield is about 7.5%. Still so good. My wish is the reit needs only to maintain their dpu performance.

Considering current investment climate, there is not better alternative that provide good value for money i feel personally. At this price range, I am not buying more as I have quite a significant exposure or so sadly because i feel there is still some room to go up but risk has to be mitigated. And neither am I selling even if the price indeed moves up.

So what would be a possible sell price ? At $1.605, dividend yields go just below 7%. So is not hard to achieve provided investors can understand the long term stability of this reit growth in dpu. What would de-rail my investment plan ? Macro event and the reit significant deterioration in their performance. At the mean time, continue riding the market doing nothing on this counter.


Cory
20170627

Cory Diary : Singapore Savings Bonds experience ( SSB )

This is the website of SSB. http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx
Every month SSB will update with new tranche for purchase with appropriate rates as below picture.

Purchase is simple online. I have tested few times using DBS website. Application is $2 each time.
Dividends credited to my DBS saving account after 6 months automatically.

To sell is not hard too as I have tested it literally. However do note your transaction and amount each time you purchase or withdraw as there is no easy access to SSB historical records that you can tell in the website when you sell. Bank statements in the web is backdated to 2 months so provide no helps too. However I do get paper mail statement as equity trades done.

The highest effective interests rate is only if you hold it for 10 years and is quite attractive considering is "risk-less". However if you withdraw like I did, the rates will be reduced per table of the link above and still not bad. There is a limit of 100K even if I want to put more unfortunately.

Unlike traded bond, there is no capital gain or loss. True capital protected in the sense less sovereign risk. Due to SSB nature, in my next dividend and investment reports, I will move them under Cash/Fixed deposit category instead. This will better reflect the right yield and portfolio investment equity returns. Meaning my equity annual dividends report will exclude SSB dividends.

I plan to maximize my allocation surely. It beats Fixed Deposits hand down.


Cory
20170625

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20170617

Normally I do not comment much on my short term trades as I do a lot within a year if you have followed. As I have less creative ideas recently, I may as well talk a little on it.

Recently, I sold ASCENDAS REIT. If one who has been following this reit, it always seem to be in all time high (including dividends). Aiming for it is like forever. You will never get it cheap. And you will regret it if you don't. So what I did recently is to buy some only. And when price go up, I bought a little more for more buffer. And that's how I got my 10% profit within 6 months. So why do i want to sell it since is so hard to accumulate it ?

Well .... I do some maths and find this year has significant more run up in share price and that's  like 1.5 years of dividends and yield dropped below 6% so there is potential of much bigger correction to come. Well I could regret later but then money in pocket already and my 40K annual dividends will still be on track. I could have killed the golden goose. Hope not because I do like this one.

Here' the trade. So I am out-of-stock on this one.

(updated for privacy)

If you also remembered, I blogged on needs for oversea earning exposure in reit. One of those is FRASERS L&I TR. I thought is a gem. Luck on my side, the stock run up significantly too. I sold some to par down my stake to original level. We termed it re-balance. I would probably show my trades after the dusts are settled. Double digits gain.

Finally, the next stock I sold is LIPPO MALLS TR shares. This one pains me too because I do like the Indonesia growth story and the REIT seems running well. As you may know is more than 8% yield stock. To relieve my pain, I sold only half. I have some concern on the recent management change in this trust and First Reit. And lock-in 8% gains.

There are more trades made but 3 mentioned here is enough for me today. Cash raised for more battles to come. Sad.


Cory
20170617

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Retracement Self-Learning

Fibonacci Retracement

As usual, I am not an expert in Technical tools. We can however try to use this to time our trade after FA. As dividend investor, getting in low enough is important so that we have a better pie in DPU and Capital gains if any.

Using Fibonacci Retracement can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.

Thanks to Investing Note again which provide free charting and customization for my learning. https://www.investingnote.com

Again, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example again, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines too ?

As bad news came in last quarter report, we returned to below $0.70. Will it get worst. I bet there is good chance to retrace to $0.65 based on MACD further guidance. And this level maybe good entry point for me but we can decide later.

Cool ?


Cory
20170613

Cory Diary : Fibonacci Extensions Self-Learning

Fibonacci Extensions

First to say I am no expert and trying to learn by myself Fibonacci Extensions. Why ?

Simply it is one of few key tools we can time our sell trades. For people who are not new to stock trading, there will be time when our stock just runaway after we sold. So when to sell can be useful. When stock hits high when is best time to sell ? Valuation point ? Macro condition ? Tool ? Tips ? Supports and Resistances ?

Using Fibonacci Extensions can be one of a good way but surely not always the right way. Here's what i found on this Indicator definition. There is no need to modify below because is so complete on the definition I feel. Surely is much easier to understand if we have some background on Fibonacci Retracement indicator.

Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move. The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%.

Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.Fibonacci extensions provide price targets that go beyond a 100% retracement of a prior move.

The levels for fibonacci extensions are calculated by taking the standard fibonacci levels and adding them to 100%. Therefore, the standard fibonacci extension levels are as follows: 138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 231.8%, 261.8%, 361.8% and 423.6%.

One useful tool I used is in Investing Note which provide free charting and customization for example adding 138.2% line. https://www.investingnote.com

ACCORDIA GOLF TR

As reminder, I am testing and learning. So whatsoever here is for that purpose and is no recommendation or instruction. Using Accordia Golf Trust example, the lines are drawn. Notice the coincidence happening all around the support and resistance lines ? Beauty of nature isn't it, or so to speak since I do have to kind of find the fit into the chart. I have manually added the 138.2% line as I thought it can be important reference.

The blue handles are the key points I use to extrapolate the chart in fiibonacci-cally way ... :)
And they are near good volume as well.

As bad news came in last quarter report, we almost return to 100% range around $0.695. Which kind of happen but only after ex-dividend. If good news has come and hopefully next quarter report, $0.828 or realistically 0.82 (around 161.8%) about range is the resistance point to sell. Of course this has to overcome my 138.2% resistance first.

Exciting ?


Cory
20170611

Cory Diary : What does XIRR 6.8% Annualized return looks like ?

When we have $10,000 and annual returns of like 5%, it seems to take forever to achieve financial freedom. However Freedom is about going through the learning experiences. The anxiety of market dynamics. The building up of portfolio. The compounding of what one has.

Here's a chart of 6.8% Annualized growths mean in green.

Not going to lie is easy but is not improbable either.

Talking to myself mode. Continue to stay nimble, invest what I can sleep on, cut loss, study financial report, use a bit of TA, don't go on margin, reasonable margin of safety, logical diversification and don't gamble in rubbish stocks. Stock tips from forums, blogs, analysts, friends and relatives are just a dream for me to dream.


Cory
20170610

Cory Diary : Asset Allocation 20170604

My heart screaming to write something today and decided to do a clean up / review my asset allocation.

Here's the pic.

From the chart, if we are to total up MMF and Deposits, that 26%. MMF is Money Market Fund ready for investment. If I am to surrender my Insurance, that will boost to 31% which matches my Equity allocation. However I am unlikely to do that. Nevertheless, this is the War Chest. At 26%, is still a little high. I need to lower Deposits allocation to 20% but may need to reserve this bullet.

Bonds and Preference 13% provides a low yield on the whole. I maybe able to squeeze something for better later but for now it stays and provide the stability to the assets.

Overall Investment allocation I would consider Equity, Property and Bonds/Pref which totaled 53%.
If some may remembered ( Link ), my Cash/FD was at 34% and Equity 22% about 4 months ago. Current allocation is way better and met way above my target and allow me to capture this year upside nicely.

The first 5 months have been great for equity holders mostly. Will Portfolio continues to grow till 2017 ends ? I believe there is still a little leg to go. Will have to stay nimble and watch for major market turning if any. Touch wood.


Cory
20170406

Cory Diary : The Law of Growth - Population

Singapore Population growth has seen some increase prior to the last election. Since then we have seen a more gradual growth. I would say outcome of the last election result in securing the 70% votes.

I personally have been a proponent of quality of life rather than GDP growth. But is when the growth starts to slow down and stock market of local dependent economy starts to pinch that we start to feel the impact of it because one of the most important metric to watch for growth is Population Growth.

Let's face it. Singaporeans are not replacing themselves. If we are not changing, it will be 20 years of lost growth like what we are seeing in Japan. For this, who suffers the most ? The future generations that has to support the growing grey population. Japan is a country we need to carefully understand and study.

Japan Population

While I have not been in the country for most of the time, there has been constant barrage on the foreign influx policies. The constant breakdown of the MRT is not helping. The move to privatize is the right one. And I miss this one. More HDBs are needed to absorb the population increase. More Hospitals too. All this takes time to build up.

Same time interestingly, we have reduction in schools which means theoretically fewer teachers are needed. Again this is the outcome of lowered population growth forecast with gradual increase. A good example of mid class job losses and the dependent/supporting industry employment and income that comes with it such as rentals, basic consumption, transportation, telco, flights etc.

I specifically reserve the last segment to those that still has heartburn on the needs of population increase. ( below charts)

United States Population

Even mighty Americans do this too despite their innovation and economic scale and success. Maybe that's one key reason why we seen DJIA hitting 20K. Sorry Trump for taking some of your credit !


Cory
20170528

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates 20170527

Charting in Excel is quite fun. Just figure out I can do a reverse of my Radar Chart. Be warned, will need to take a new dimension at looking it. The reverse radar overcomes concentration in the center and put more emphasis on stocks that occupies higher allocation than the others in the middle.

My trades already hit 74 YTD which is about half year mark and I am enjoying the process of allocation and divestment.

Increased my SSB ( Bond ) allocation with new funds. For more diverse and stable income. Upped Ascendas and Lippo Reits some. And started a small allocation  in AGT and Parkway Reit. Decided to remove FEHT.

Halcyon Agri removed. Commodity is still not in my blood. Cut loss less than 5k.
Took some profit on STI Index and Global Logistic to balance my loss. This lowered my Banks exposure more. Net changes bring up my portfolio yield some and laid the ground work for next year dividends.

XIRR YTD 6.9% excluding structured investment.(Book closure 29th Dec '17)
All-in-all I am having fun in the market place.

Risk anticipation will be market reaction to interest rate hikes which i have no control even though logically should not impact Reits much. Fact is for the past year Reit stock price has generally moved up and market experts are wrong again. Will Reits continues the uptrend .... better not unless we got better yields else we may see volatility.


Cory
20170527

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.

Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance

Often people ask for annualized returns over the entire investment horizon of index or fund. This is wrong simply each human investment lifespan is limited to their relevant period and changes as we age. How the world managed financially 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 30 years ago and today can be very different too. Depending when we are investing actively determines our performance during this periods.

For myself, the active investment period is about few years before the global financial crisis till ongoing now. That's 10-12 years mark. Therefore, it is meaningless to me when fund promote their result across 20 years or 30 years horizon where tons of things can happen in-between.. 10 years before it may be mega bull or era where they face different government regulatory, technological or whatsoever industry in focus. If i have started the same, my annualized can also be different from today.

Not strictly speaking, the weight-age even for same period can be different. A single salaried person will have more and more money later into her career for investment whereas a married person may have lesser. This is crucial to understand. Because a millionaire today do not have a million dollar 15 years ago to invest to compare. For DIY Investors, your recent fund invested are likely one of your largest or heavier amount in your investment life. Recent market change can skews your returns a lot more personally.

Fund that start right before GFC 2008 and after can be just a year apart but their result can also be totally different. So we need to be very careful when reading materials given to us. How many people will know or remember this ?

A sample of Cory returns each year as below. Annualized whole period about 6.8%.

A peek on Temasek performance, their 10 years and 20 years mark are 6% annualized.
http://www.temasek.com.sg/investorrelations/portfolioperformance

GIC returns are a little complicated as they are oversea focus. A strong SGD will not help or fair. Using USD, is about 5.7% @ 20 years. This beats nominal MSCI index.
http://www.gic.com.sg/report/report-2015-2016/investment-report.html

Now, how about STI Index, my favorite. Using 1st Jan 2007 (updated) to now. Is only 0.28% annualized (updated). If we are to include dividends say 3.x% to round it off, that's 4%(updated). Dividends play a huge part in returns or damping growth depending which side you are in. 10 years before (1997) is about 5% including dividends..

Seems so far our CPF can still get the money needed. If this funds go much lower, either CPF has to give lesser, Land sales price has to go up, more tax from us or SGD will have to weaken. You choose.


Cory
20170520

Cory Diary : Singapore Tax Rate to Taiwan

Two things cannot escape in life. Death and Taxes. How do we compare with other countries in taxes ? Since i do not have more in-depth knowledge of most, I will do a rough estimate between Taiwan and Singapore.

Taiwan has a model kind of similar to some western countries in concept. In Taiwan, the medical and other benefits portion are funded separately and not part of the annual income tax. Nevertheless employees paid for it as part of the deductible in their salary. For simplification we will exclude them. Similarly we will not include Employer CPF contribution and relief in Singapore situation, and deductibles due to education and dependents in both countries.

Tax in Singapore Dollars at 1:22 rate

As you can see the tax in Taiwan is not competitive at all based on Income Tax formula.

People in $200K bracket, Singapore residents paid about 50% of what Taiwan residents would have to. No wonder the rich migrates to Singapore. 

But do we treat our poor badly ? From the above table, Singapore residents earning in S$40K bracket is only paying 17.5% of what a Taiwan residents would have paid.

This is a simplification. Are we far from reality and is this Hard Truth ?

Cory

20170516

Cory Diary : Net Worth 20170514

As I expand my Sg Equity size, feel is time to track the amount in my Net Worth chart. However data is not much but have to start somewhere. ( Yellow ). The effort is zero other than initial setup one time. This will give me guidance on my equity size relative to other lines.

Also did a one time adjustment starting on Jan'16 by removing my Property Net Asset out from the Blue line. Reason being they are not liquid for cash flow supports which is short term in nature. The other reason is the valuation is not easy to come by.

Net Worth 20170514

The Red Line is Net worth  which I manage to backdated till 2011. Would love to have more data before 2008 for my liquid portion in Blue but unfortunately it won't be possible with time passage. The Blue line is also my financial freedom line because is what I can tap on to generate returns that I can use quickly for property loan, Insurance, bills and daily needs. They are primarily supported by Salary Income and Equities.

What really unplug my growth gear ( beside 2008 GFC )  is PRC Market shake up in 2015 mid that set me back by at least 6 months. That's how integrate Singapore economy is with China now. It also takes me some period to put back my equity after. This line is make possible for meaningful change data as I move to dividend style of investing.

There is another line I like to add is the Expense line. If I have to do this directly, the task will be huge. Maybe I should look from the angle of amount of saving to deduce. I am probably too late in the game to track this as I have moved to higher spending gear ....



Cory
20170514